Guelph, ON · POP — · EMP 82,455 · DATA GRADE A
Guelph, ON
exposure score (OpenAI task-exposure index via NOC crosswalk — single-index tier)
more exposed than 61% of Canadian CMAs
Secondary measures
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β over the group's local occupations). Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail salespersons and visual merchandisers | 2,025 | — | 61.7 | |
| Retail and wholesale trade managers | 1,740 | — | 68.2 | |
| Administrative officers | 1,260 | — | 82.9 | |
| Post-secondary teaching and research assistants | 1,145 | — | 81.4 | |
| Elementary school and kindergarten teachers | 1,810 | — | 46.9 | |
| Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers | 2,700 | — | 27.7 | |
| Administrative assistants | 780 | — | 94.9 | |
| University professors and lecturers | 930 | — | 71.4 | |
| Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations | 815 | — | 74.3 | |
| Accounting and related clerks | 675 | — | 86.6 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Guelph against any other metro — side by side.