SCENARIO BUILDER · US · YOUR HYPOTHESIS, NOT A PUBLISHED INDEX

Build your own scenario.

The map's datasets come from published research. This one comes from you. Answer three questions, then dial how hard you think each industry gets hit. We build the map and add it to the DATASET switch as Custom Scenario. It's a hypothesis — clearly labeled as yours, not data.

1 · Your assumptions

AI does most desk work as well as a person by

How fast companies actually adopt it

Does AI replace workers, or assist them

2 · How hard does each industry get hit?

1 = barely · 3 = as published · 5 = devastated. Start at the published baseline and nudge what you believe.

Agriculture & forestry 3

Mining, oil & gas 3

Utilities 3

Construction 3

Manufacturing 3

Wholesale trade 3

Retail trade 3

Transport & warehousing 3

Information & media 3

Finance & insurance 3

Real estate 3

Professional & technical services 3

Corporate management 3

Admin & support services 3

Education 3

Health care 3

Arts & entertainment 3

Hotels & restaurants 3

Other services 3

Public administration 3

3 · Your map

POSITIONS ELIMINATED

OF METRO JOBS · YOUR SCENARIO

Fig. Green faring well, ember worst hit, under your assumptions. Hover for a metro; the counter is your scenario's national toll.

Advanced · tune the engine directly

The three questions set arrival year (T), diffusion speed (k) and automation share. These deeper parameters stay at median defaults unless you change them.

Method. Each metro's loss = Σ over industries (local industry employment × that industry's published task-exposure × your intensity multiplier) run through the adoption curve your answers set. Multiplier 3 reproduces the published baseline, so an all-3s scenario matches the real map. This is a what-if, not a forecast — see methods.